Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-9.7%
Secondary
Market
49.5%
Ordo
55.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+5.5%
Result
Market
65.9%
Ordo
56.1%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-9.7%
Settled
Women Africa Cup of Nations · 2026-07-31 04:00
· Ordo
Morocco Women vs Algeria WomenMorocco Women vs Algeria Women
Predicted2-0
Actual1-0
Core setup is home win, second pick [2.5] narrow, model estimates score 2-0.
PrimaryHome✓Secondary[2.5] Under✓ResultHome✓Goals O/U[2.5] Under
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Ordo probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Ordo %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth analysis
In this Women's Africa Cup of Nations, Morocco Women's Football Team will face Algeria Women's Football Team.
Comparison of tactics and strength: The Moroccan women's football team has performed well in African women's football competitions in recent years, with excellent frontcourt control and physical confrontation advantages; the Algerian women's football team often adopts mid-low defensive formations when facing strong enemies, and their tactics are relatively conservative.
Market pricing actuarial: The market gives a low-zone pricing of 1.34 for the main win. After removing the margin, the main win probability reaches 65.9%, which is a very strong directional pricing. The popularity of the game is highly concentrated at 1:0 (5.6) and 2:0 (5.7), indicating that the market generally expects the Moroccan women's football team to control the rhythm and end with a small victory.
Risk Control and Configuration Strategy: As a cup match, both sides have more tests at the beginning, and the chance of the total number of goals exceeding 3 goals is low. Therefore, it is the most stable allocation direction to use the main victory with the highest certainty as the core asset and match [2.5] details as the secondary asset.
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