Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+0.5%
Secondary
Market
—
Ordo
30.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
—
Result
Market
51.5%
Ordo
45.7%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-5.8%
Settled
Brazilian Division 1 · 2026-07-31 06:30
· Ordo
Corinthians vs Athletico ParanaenseCorinthians vs Athletico Paranaense
Predicted1-0
Actual0-0
Core setup [2.5] is fine, then choose main [0] Water Flow Defense
Primary[2.5] Under✓SecondaryMain[0]—ResultHome✗Goals O/U[2.5] Under
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Ordo probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Ordo %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth analysis
Goal expectation and tactical trend: The market has given an extremely skewed pricing for the number of goals in this game. The market pricing of [2.5] fine are as low as 1.50, and the implied probability of conversion exceeds 62%. The top three high-probability combinations are 1:0 (4.8), 0:0 (6.2) and 1:1 (6.2), reflecting the see-saw nature of the defensive confrontation between the two sides, making it extremely difficult to form an open goal battle.
Directional positioning and risk control: Corrientes relied on home court advantage to achieve a 51.5% implied win rate to de-extract, falling into the 42%–52% data gray area. In a low goal number (low xG) prediction environment, it is extremely difficult for the home team to win by more than one goal, and the risk of directly asset allocation on the one-way handicap is greater. Therefore, according to the handicap decision tree, the [2.5] detail with the highest degree of certainty should be given priority as the core asset, and paired with Main[0] (Asian tie) to hedge the 0:0 / 1:1 draw risk.
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