Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+1.9%
Secondary
Market
71.0%
Ordo
59.7%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-11.3%
Result
Market
71.0%
Ordo
59.7%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-11.3%
Settled
Copa Sudamericana · 2026-07-31 06:00
· Ordo
Gremio vs BolivarGremio vs Bolivar
Predicted3-0
Actual0-1
Core configuration [2.5] over, secondary pick is handicap home/away draw Home [-1]
Primary[2.5] Over✗SecondaryMain[-1]—ResultHome✗Goals O/U[2.5] Over
✗
Unlock market reference pricing and deep analysis for this match — full-market pricing, weight allocation, actuarial narrative, and recommendation grid.
Virtual credits are for statistical research only · Unlocks are permanent for this match
✓Unlocked · Loading deep analysis…
★
Deep analysis
🔒
Loading quantitative analysis
Failed to load analysis. Please refresh the page.
Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Ordo probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Ordo %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth analysis
Tactics and Match Situation
In this Copa Sudamericana, the Brazilian team Cameo will face the Bolivian team Bolivar at home. Bolivar relies heavily on La Paz's plateau home advantage, but its defensive holes are often magnified in plain away games. Cameo has strong ball control and explosive power at home, and its frontcourt press can put great pressure on the visiting team's defense.
Data and Market Calibration
The market gives a strong pricing of 1.24 for Ganmeo's main win (the implied probability of de-pumping is about 71.0%), showing a significant difference in strength level. The baseline for goal size is set at 2.5 goals, and the high zone (big goal) is priced at 1.59. The market expects the home team to be full of firepower.
Risk Tips and Configuration Strategies
Since there are potential risks such as lineup rotation in the cup and injury data needs to be further anchored, the best strategy to prevent upsets is to anchor the home team's offense. Take the [2.5] Big with extremely high probability (about 60%) as the core configuration, and cooperate with the Main[-1] to pursue the premium of letting the ball pass through the plate. The estimated full-time score is 3-0.
Report content is protected; unauthorized copying or redistribution is prohibited.