Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+1.3%
Secondary
Market
—
Ordo
30.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
—
Result
Market
45.9%
Ordo
42.2%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-3.7%
Settled
Copa Sudamericana · 2026-07-31 08:30
· Ordo
O'Higgins vs Boca JuniorsO'Higgins vs Boca Juniors
Predicted0-1
Actual1-0
Core configuration [2.5] is fine, with secondary selection guest [0] for water flow defense
Primary[2.5] Under✓SecondaryGuest[0]—ResultAway✗Goals O/U[2.5] Under
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Ordo probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Ordo %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth analysis
Tactics and Strength Comparison
In this South American Club Cup match, Chile's O'Higgins will face Argentinian giants Junior Bulgari at home. O'Higgins relies on the favorable location of his home court and possesses strong physical confrontation and "down to overcome" fighting spirit. He is accustomed to disrupting the rhythm of strong teams through formation contraction and defensive fouls. O'Higgins has a clear advantage in overall lineup depth and player personal talent, but in away games in cup games, he usually adopts a stable control strategy, and may face tactical rotations, which will inhibit the smoothness of the offense to a certain extent.
Data market pricing and market pricing
The market currently gives Xiaobaojia a customer win of 1.92 (the implied probability of removing the margin is about 45.9%), which falls in the gray area of 42%–52%. The risk of taking the customer win direction directly is high. The most significant feature of this handicap is concentrated on the size of the goal - [2.5] The market pricing of the goal area are as low as 1.52. The market and system actuarial calculations are extremely pointing to a low-scoring pattern. The top three popular bets are 0:1, 1:1 and 0:0 in order, reflecting the extremely high boring field and low xG attributes.
Configuration Strategy
When the confidence in the direction of winning or losing is limited, [2.5] Details with a self-assessed probability of 62% are listed as the first core asset (Primary); the second choice is to configure Ke[0] (small guarantee plus tie hand) as a defensive asset to prevent the risk of a draw. The estimated score is 0:1 or 1:1.
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