Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+4.4%
Secondary
Market
79.5%
Ordo
65.6%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-13.9%
Result
Market
79.5%
Ordo
65.6%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-13.9%
Settled
Women Korean Division 1 · 2026-07-31 17:57
· Ordo
Suwon FC Women vs Sejong FC WomenSuwon FC Women vs Sejong FC Women
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Ordo probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Ordo %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth analysis
In this Women's South Korean Professional League (WK League), the Suwon FC Women's Football Team, which has a strong foundation, will face Sejong FC Women's Football Team at home. Judging from the market's implicit pricing, the home team's winning probability is as high as 79.5% (home winning market pricing 1.10), showing strong hierarchical suppression.
At the tactical level, the Sejong FC Women's Football Team is expected to adopt a 5-4-1 intensive defensive formation with a low contraction when facing a strong opponent, to compress the penetration space of the Suwon FC Women's Football Team at the front of the penalty area as much as possible. Although the Suwon FC women's football team controls more than 60% of the ball possession rate, after leading by two to three goals, they usually slow down the pace of the game for formation rotation and physical control.
Actuarial data shows that the data premium baseline for this game is 3.5 goals, but the high zone (Over 3.5) gives a high water of 2.08. Market institutions have reservations about big-score confrontations; at the same time, the hot spots in the market are highly concentrated at 2:0, 3:0 and 1:0. Comprehensive evaluation shows that the home team controls the entire field but the away team defends with all players. It is extremely difficult to break the 4-goal threshold for the total number of goals scored. [3.5] Details is the most confident asset with the best risk-benefit ratio at the moment.
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