Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+6.9%
Secondary
Market
80.1%
Ordo
47.1%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-33.0%
Result
Market
80.1%
Ordo
47.1%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-33.0%
Settled
Women Korean Division 1 · 2026-07-31 17:57
· Ordo
Incheon Steel Women vs Hwacheon FC WomenIncheon Steel Women vs Hwacheon FC Women
Predicted0-1
Actual0-2
Core configuration [2.5] Narrow, second pick away win, estimated Hwacheon FC Women's 1-0 narrow win.
Primary[2.5] Under✓SecondaryAway✓ResultAway✓Goals O/U[2.5] Under
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Ordo probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Ordo %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth analysis
Comparison of tactics and combat power
The Hwacheon FC Women's Football Team's overall offensive and defensive conversion efficiency and tactical execution have remained at the top level in the league this season, and the high-position press in the frontcourt has a strong sense of pressure on the defense. In contrast, although the Incheon Steel Women's Football Team has a traditional background, the defense line has been slow to shift during the lineup transformation period this season, and the home court often adopts a relatively conservative contraction defense strategy.
Market Pricing and Wave Structure
From the initial opening to the market, the Hwachuan FC women's football team's away win was given at 1.64 (implied probability 53.3% after removing water), and the visiting team's concession advantage is clear. The total goals baseline opens at 2.5 goals, and the thin goal (Under 2.5) water is at 1.81 to maintain the appeal of the low zone. The highest implied rankings of wave bile are 0:1 (5.8), 1:1 (6.5) and 1:2 (6.9). The market is significantly tilted towards away wins and small ball patterns.
Asset Allocation Decision
Considering that Incheon Steel's home game is defensive and the pace of the game is slow, it will be difficult to break the game with the number of goals scored in the game. [2.5] The accuracy of hitting fine balls is higher, so it is listed as the first-choice core asset (Primary); the Hwacheon FC Women’s Football Team’s overall strength and points-fighting intention are clear, and away wins are used as the secondary asset (Secondary) for auxiliary allocation.
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