Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-7.5%
Secondary
Market
55.6%
Ordo
59.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+3.4%
Result
Market
58.4%
Ordo
50.9%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-7.5%
Settled
Austrian Bundesliga · 2026-08-01 01:30
· Ordo
LASK Linz vs Grazer AKLASK Linz vs Grazer AK
Predicted2-1
Actual3-0
Core setup is home win, second pick is [2.5] high
PrimaryHome✓Secondary[2.5] Over✓ResultHome✓Goals O/U[2.5] Over
✓
Unlock market reference pricing and deep analysis for this match — full-market pricing, weight allocation, actuarial narrative, and recommendation grid.
Virtual credits are for statistical research only · Unlocks are permanent for this match
✓Unlocked · Loading deep analysis…
★
Deep analysis
🔒
Loading quantitative analysis
Failed to load analysis. Please refresh the page.
Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Ordo probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Ordo %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth analysis
Event context and league background: This game is the first round of the 2026/27 Austrian League 1 (2026-08-01). Nings (LASK) plays at home against Sturm Graz. As the first game of the season, both sides are full of energy and have strong attacking intentions, but there are still hidden dangers of running-in in the defense in the early stages of the new season.
Market Implied Probability and Data Calibration: The agency quoted a home win of 1.51, and the implied winning rate after removing the water is as high as 58.4%, showing that the market has given significant support to Ningsi's home strength and control; the away win of 4.8 (18.4%) and the draw of 3.8 (23.2%) reflect that the away team has limited room for upsets.
Pattern and total goal trend: The baseline of total goals is 2.5 goals, and the over price is 1.66. Combined with the popular 2:1 (6.9) and 2:0 (7.25), it shows that Ningsi’s offensive end is expected to break through the away team’s gate in this game. The offensive and defensive rhythm of the two teams is relatively open, and there is sufficient confidence in the performance of more than 2.5 goals in the game.
Report content is protected; unauthorized copying or redistribution is prohibited.
