Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+4.0%
Secondary
Market
—
Ordo
30.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
—
Result
Market
43.1%
Ordo
46.4%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+3.3%
Settled
Austrian Bundesliga · 2026-08-01 23:00
· Ordo
Tirol vs Sturm GrazTirol vs Sturm Graz
Predicted1-2
Actual1-1
Core configuration [2.5] large, secondary pick [0] water flow defense
Primary[2.5] Over✗SecondaryGuest[0]—ResultAway✗Goals O/U[2.5] Over
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Ordo probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Ordo %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth Analysis
Tactics and Strength Structure: Graz's overall roster strength and offensive conversion rate are significantly higher than Troller's. Tyrol's home defense is prone to defensive gaps when facing high-pressure pressing and rapid wing acceleration; However, at home, they possess considerable counter-attacking and set-piece aerial pressure.
* Market Pricing and Probability Gray Zone: The latest implied market probability shows an away win at 51.0% (equivalent to a win rate in the 42%–52% gray zone), so direct allocating to a win carries some defensive risk. Meanwhile, the high scoring zone [2.5] offered a low market pricing of 1.65, indicating that the market clearly expects an open clash between the two teams.
* Strategic setup: Based on a full-match score estimate of 1:2, prioritize core lineup to target the most stable [2.5] big ; The secondary option is Away[0] (Asian handicap draw) to provide defensive effectiveness against draws.
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