Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+2.1%
Secondary
Market
—
Ordo
30.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
—
Result
Market
51.8%
Ordo
46.4%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-5.4%
Settled
UE Champions · 2026-07-29 02:45
· Ordo
Hearts vs Sturm GrazHearts vs Sturm Graz
Predicted2-1
Actual0-2
Core setup [2.5] is high, second pick is home [-0.5], estimated score 2:1.
Primary[2.5] Over✗SecondaryHome[-0.5]—ResultHome✗Goals O/U[2.5] Over
✗
Unlock market reference pricing and deep analysis for this match — full-market pricing, weight allocation, actuarial narrative, and recommendation grid.
Virtual credits are for statistical research only · Unlocks are permanent for this match
✓Unlocked · Loading deep analysis…
★
Deep analysis
🔒
Loading quantitative analysis
Failed to load analysis. Please refresh the page.
Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Ordo probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Ordo %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth analysis
Tactical style and attack pattern
In this Europa League qualifier, Scottish Premier League team Hess will face Austrian League giant Graz at home. Hess relied on their home momentum and strong physical confrontation, and their high-position pressing and set-pieces in the frontcourt were extremely impactful. However, when faced with rapid defensive counterattacks, the back line easily exposed gaps in their ribs. Graz had extremely high offensive-defense conversion efficiency and was good at using the frontcourt to press and quickly penetrate the opponent's high-position defense. Both teams' tactical styles have strong offensive attributes.
Market Pricing and Asset Allocation
The market's latest pricing of the main winning market pricing is 1.71 (implied probability of about 51.8%), which is in the directional gray area of 42%–52% after actuarial calculations. The one-way market pricing are constrained by the risk of a draw (implied 23.9%); in contrast, the market's 2.5-goal market index has dropped significantly to 1.54 (implied probability of over 61%), showing that institutions and funds have a high degree of consensus on the offensive firepower and defensive flaws of the two teams. Considering the fast pace of the cup match, [2.5] Big, with a self-rated probability of 62%, is the most confident allocation asset in the game. The second choice is paired with Home [-0.5] to lock in the home team's home offensive advantage.
Report content is protected; unauthorized copying or redistribution is prohibited.