Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-10.9%
Secondary
Market
60.4%
Ordo
65.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+4.6%
Result
Market
69.2%
Ordo
58.3%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-10.9%
Settled
UE Champions · 2026-07-29 02:00
· Ordo
Dinamo Zagreb vs ThunDinamo Zagreb vs Thun
Predicted2-0
Actual2-2
Core configuration is mainly [-1], secondary is [3.5] detailed
PrimaryMain[-1]—Secondary[3.5] Under✗ResultHome✗Goals O/U[3.5] Under
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Ordo probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Ordo %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth analysis
Strength Comparison and Tactical Confrontation: Dinamo Zagreb is a regular player in European competitions, and his overall lineup value and personal tactical quality are far superior to his opponent Duane. The home team is good at using the width of the court for high pressure and rhythm control; the away team is expected to adopt a 5-4-1 low and deep defensive formation, trying to shrink the space in the middle through intensive defense and reduce the number of goals conceded.
Market Pricing and Goal Expectation: The market’s single-winner pricing is 1.28 (implied probability of 69.2%), which accurately reflects the significant level gap between the two teams. The goal line is set at 3.5 goals, and the high market pricing [3.5] are as high as 2.33, which shows that the organization has reservations about whether the home team can achieve a big victory.
Cup Risk Control and Strategic Configuration: Taking into account the characteristics of the two-leg or knockout round of the cup, after gaining a 2-goal lead, the home team will most likely take the initiative to slow down the ball to consume time and conserve energy, and the rhythm of the confrontation is expected to slow down. Therefore, the probability of the score being locked at 2:0 or 3:0 is higher. The core configuration locks in the handicap home and away and home [-1] with strong ball handicap ability, and the second choice is aligned with the [3.5] fine of the field control script.
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