Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
—
Secondary
Market
54.7%
Ramus
58.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+3.3%
Result
Market
50.7%
Ramus
49.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-1.7%
Settled
UE Champions · 2026-07-22 02:00
· Ramus
Thun vs Dinamo ZagrebThun vs Dinamo Zagreb
Predicted1-2
Actual1-1
The implied probability of a cup away win in the gray zone is about 49%, with asset allocation centered on a draw-to-win win for all away matches, paired with a 2.5-goal over-the-clock setup as a secondary line.
PrimaryAway[0]—Secondary[2.5] Over✗ResultAway✗Goals O/U[2.5] Over
✗
Unlock market reference pricing and deep analysis for this match — full-market pricing, weight allocation, actuarial narrative, and recommendation grid.
Virtual credits are for statistical research only · Unlocks are permanent for this match
✓Unlocked · Loading deep analysis…
★
Deep analysis
🔒
Loading quantitative analysis
Failed to load analysis. Please refresh the page.
Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Ramus probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Ramus %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
