Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+6.6%
Secondary
Market
—
Orbis
30.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
—
Result
Market
38.1%
Orbis
43.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+4.9%
Settled
UE Champions · 2026-07-22 03:00
· Orbis
Vikingur Reykjavik vs Hapoel Beer ShevaVikingur Reykjavik vs Hapoel Beer Sheva
Predicted2-1
Actual2-1
The top core asset is the high-certainty 2.5-goal big (priced at 1.73), supplemented by the full home [0] (priced at 1.85) for balanced defense.
Primary[2.5] Over✓SecondaryHome[0]✓ResultHome✓Goals O/U[2.5] Over
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Orbis probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Orbis %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
