Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-5.8%
Secondary
Market
49.5%
Ordo
58.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+8.5%
Result
Market
59.2%
Ordo
53.4%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-5.8%
Settled
Korean Division 2 · 2026-08-01 18:30
· Ordo
Chungbuk Cheongju vs Suwon BluewingsChungbuk Cheongju vs Suwon Bluewings
Predicted0-2
Actual2-2
Core setup is away win, second pick [2.5] to carefully guard against extreme dull games
PrimaryAway✗Secondary[2.5] Under✗ResultAway✗Goals O/U[2.5] Under
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Ordo probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Ordo %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth Analysis
In this match of the South Korean Division 2 League, Chungbuk Cheongju hosted Suwon Bluewings. From the perspective of structured market pricing, the away team Suwon Bluewings received very significant market support, with the away win market priced at 1.49 (with a 59.2% implied win rate after margin adjustment), highlighting the objective gap between the two teams in terms of core strength and league competitiveness.
Tactics and Offensive Simulation: Chungbuk Cheongju faces a traditional league powerhouse expected to adopt a low-post defensive formation, attempting to secure transfers through dense defense and set-piece plays; However, Suwon Bluewings' midfield control and passing rhythm were enough to maintain constant pressure. The top three favorites in the correct score market are 0:1, 0:2, and 1:1, indicating that the market unanimously favors the away team controlling the pace of the match and that total goals tend to develop in the lower zone.
Allocation Mindset: Suwon Bluewings have a clear away advantage, with a self-rated win rate of 62% for a full away win, showing strong confidence in direction. Using 'away win' as the core asset is the most stable asset; Considering that Chungbuk Cheongju might fully tighten their defense at home, the secondary choice was paired with '[2.5] Fine' as a defensive combo, accurately covering the 0:1 and 0:2 scores.
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