Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+6.4%
Secondary
Market
—
Ordo
30.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
—
Result
Market
30.5%
Ordo
32.4%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+1.9%
Settled
Korean Division 2 · 2026-08-01 18:30
· Ordo
Chungnam Asan vs Seongnam FCChungnam Asan vs Seongnam FC
Predicted1-1
Actual2-0
Core setup [2.5] is fine, then choose main [0] Water Flow Defense
Primary[2.5] Under✓SecondaryMain[0]—ResultDraw✗Goals O/U[2.5] Under
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Ordo probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Ordo %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth Analysis
The market pricing for this South Korean Division B match (Chungnam Asan vs FC Seongnam) shows an extremely balanced pattern (home win 2.50 | draw 2.90 | away win 2.58). After marginalization, the implied win rates are 35.3%, 30.5%, and 34.2% respectively, with very scattered wins and draws and losses, lacking clear hotspots.
In terms of tactics and stats, the overall strength of the two teams is evenly matched, with frequent back-and-forth battles in midfield. The data premium baseline shows that the low zone (under) with a total of 2.5 goals is priced as low as 1.66 (implied probability close to 60%), reflecting a strong structural consensus among market institutions regarding the tight low-score race.
If the directional win rate is below 45% and the draw probability exceeds 30%, the system decision tree red line is triggered: Strictly prohibited from using home-away or handicap home-away draws as core configurations. The best strategy for this match is to use the most confident [2.5] Small] as the main setup, supplemented by [0] draw hand for draw-down defense.
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