Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+6.4%
Secondary
Market
—
Ordo
40.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
—
Result
Market
44.8%
Ordo
41.5%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-3.3%
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Ordo probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Ordo %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth analysis
In this South Korean FA Cup match, low-level Gimhae FC (K3 League) plays at home against high-level FC Seongnam (K League 2).
Analysis of the cross-level attributes and fighting spirit of the cup: As a lower-level team, Gimhae FC has a strong desire to "defeat the upper class" in the cup and has a strong home momentum; although FC Seongnam has an advantage in league level and overall strength, considering the pressure of the league schedule and away games, it is very likely that some main players will be rotated, and the tactical orientation is expected to be towards steady ball control and low consumption.
Market structure and direction probability assessment: Market pricing gives certain support to the away team FC Chengnan (1.97 / about 44.8%), but the winning rate does not reach the 45% strong threshold, and the implied probability of a draw is as high as 28.9% (market pricing 3.05). When directional confidence is limited and the risk of a draw is significant, the three-way market pricing are not the best executable asset.
Big and small market and tactical game: Total goals scored 2.5 goals, the price in the low zone is only 1.66, and the market depth expectations are seeing a tug-of-war. Under the cup elimination system, the home team's defensive counterattack tactics are clear. If the visiting team rotates, the efficiency of breaking the secret defense is limited. The half-time situation tends to be stalemate, and the probability of the whole game evolving towards a low score (such as 0:1 or 1:1) is extremely high. Therefore, the high-confidence [2.5] fine is the core configuration, supplemented by ke[0] as the water leakage defense.
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