Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+4.6%
Secondary
Market
60.1%
Ordo
52.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-8.1%
Result
Market
60.1%
Ordo
52.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-8.1%
Settled
Korean FA Cup · 2026-07-29 17:57
· Ordo
Busan I'Park vs FC SeoulBusan I'Park vs FC Seoul
Predicted1-2
Actual2-0
Core allocation is [2.5] high, with the secondary pick for away win to hedge against the over-goal trend
Primary[2.5] Over✗SecondaryAway✗ResultAway✗Goals O/U[2.5] Over
✗
Unlock market reference pricing and deep analysis for this match — full-market pricing, weight allocation, actuarial narrative, and recommendation grid.
Seoul Football Club, often referred to as FC Seoul in Chinese, is a well-known professional football club in the Republic of Korea. It is located in Seoul Special City and participates in K League 1. The club is owned by GS Sports, a subsidiary of GS Group. It is one of the most successful and popular football clubs in South Korea. It has won the domestic top league championship six times, the Korean Football Association Cup twice, the Korean League Cup twice and the Korean Super Cup once. Seoul Football Club was established in December 1983 as Lexi Venus Football Club, named after its then owner Lexi Venus Group (now LG Group). In 2012, Seoul…
Virtual credits are for statistical research only · Unlocks are permanent for this match
✓Unlocked · Loading deep analysis…
★
Deep analysis
🔒
Loading quantitative analysis
Failed to load analysis. Please refresh the page.
Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Ordo probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Ordo %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth analysis
Strength level difference and fighting spirit pattern: This South Korean FA Cup is a typical K1 league team (FC Seoul) playing away against a K2 league team (Busan Idol). Although the home team Busan Idol has a strong willingness to fight in the cup environment, and FC Seoul may have a certain degree of main rotation, there is still a significant level difference between the two sides in terms of lineup depth and personal ability.
Data Pricing and Offensive Trend: The market gives FC Seoul an away win of 1.47, with an implied winning rate of about 60.1%. The handicap opens with a goal handicap (1.99), combined with a total goal of 2.5 goals and a high-area pricing (1.73), showing that institutions have a positive attitude towards more offensive confrontations between the two sides. The popular favorites are concentrated at 0:1, 0:2 and 1:2, reflecting the away win and the room for offensive output in the game.
Tactical Game and Configuration Strategy: Busan Idol is expected to adopt defensive counterattack tactics in home games, and has the opportunity to score goals when facing the visiting team's rotating defense; while FC Seoul has obvious advantages in overall offensive quality and has the ability to break into the opponent's city. The estimated game trend is open, and the score falls around 1:2. The core configuration gives priority to the high-confidence [2.5] Big, and the second choice is Away Win for directional assistance.
Report content is protected; unauthorized copying or redistribution is prohibited.
