Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-8.5%
Secondary
Market
50.8%
Ordo
56.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+5.2%
Result
Market
62.6%
Ordo
54.1%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-8.5%
Settled
Korean FA Cup · 2026-07-29 17:57
· Ordo
Bucheon FC vs Paju FrontierBucheon FC vs Paju Frontier
Predicted2-0
Actual3-0
Core setup for a home win, second pick [2.5] to guard against a dull and narrow cup win
PrimaryHome✓Secondary[2.5] Under✗ResultHome✓Goals O/U[2.5] Under
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Ordo probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Ordo %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth analysis
In this South Korean FA Cup match, FC Bucheon of the professional league echelon will face Paju Frontline at home. Observed from the market pricing structure, the main winning price is 1.41 (implied winning rate after removing water is about 62.6%), showing clear hierarchical advantages and home court control.
Tactical and handicap actuarial display:
Gap in combat power and level: FC Bucheon is significantly better than the visiting team in terms of overall lineup depth and adaptability to the rhythm of the game. It has the ability to dominate the game at home in the cup.
Total number of goals trend: The baseline of full-time goals is set at 2.5 goals, the low zone (fine) price is 1.82, and the market's most popular targets are 1:0 (5.7) and 2:0 (5.9). Under the cup competition system, the home team mostly controls the rhythm after taking the lead. The away team's counterattack threat is limited, and the overall game rhythm tends to be dull and restrained.
Risk Control: Considering the possible lineup rotation factors in the cup, the second choice combination [2.5] can effectively hedge the risk of a stalemate or a dull victory.
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