Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+2.6%
Secondary
Market
79.5%
Ordo
52.3%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-27.3%
Result
Market
79.5%
Ordo
52.3%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-27.3%
Settled
Finnish Division 1 · 2026-08-01 23:00
· Ordo
Lahti vs JaroLahti vs Jaro
Predicted2-1
Actual2-0
Core allocation [2.5] large, second pick home win direction
Primary[2.5] Over✗SecondaryHome✓ResultHome✓Goals O/U[2.5] Over
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Ordo probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Ordo %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth Analysis
In this Finnish Premier League match, FC Lahti hosted FF Jaro at home. Looking at the market pricing structure, the home win market pricing are set at 1.46 (with an implied probability of about 60.4% after the margin), and combined with the over 2.5 goals and high area market pricing at 1.64, this shows clear expectations for Radi to dominate the game at home and deliver higher scores.
Tactics and Lineup Estimation:
At home, Radi tends to employ proactive pressing and wing advancement. Facing Charlo's relatively weaker defensive resilience, they are expected to create ample attacking threats and take many shots. The away team's Charlo has limited ability to handle pressure on the road and has a high defensive conceding rate, but they occasionally make gains on the counterattack, making it easy to form an open tactical duels.
Asset Allocation Decisions:
Under Goals (Core Assets): The market sets a high range of 1.64 for a 2.5-ball over, implying a probability of over a ~58%–60%. Combined with both teams' average defensive clean sheets, they are most confident of scoring multiple goals like 2-1 or 3-1.
Steering Market (Secondary Asset): The home team's win rate for margin trading reaches 60.4%, indicating good direction confidence; However, given that the Asian handicap starts at 1.97 at home [-1], a narrow one-goal win by Ladi would be at risk of losing the table. Therefore, a pure Home Win (Home-Away/Draw) with no risk of movement is chosen as the secondary setup.
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