Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+2.7%
Secondary
Market
63.8%
Ordo
54.1%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-9.7%
Result
Market
63.8%
Ordo
54.1%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-9.7%
Settled
Finnish Division 1 · 2026-08-01 20:00
· Ordo
TPS Turku vs IFK MariehamnTPS Turku vs IFK Mariehamn
Predicted2-1
Actual3-0
Core allocation [2.5] high, second pick home win to secure the win
Primary[2.5] Over✓SecondaryHome✓ResultHome✓Goals O/U[2.5] Over
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Ordo probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Ordo %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth Analysis
Tactics and Battle Analysis:
In this Finnish Premier League match, TPS Dugu hosted Malihan. TPS Dugu plays aggressively at home, with strong pressing and wing pressing abilities, often creating many scoring chances against opponents with loose defensive systems. The visiting team Marleham's away performance has been relatively inconsistent, with limited defensive resistance and often forced into passive counterattacks.
Market Pricing and Data Verification:
The latest implied win rate in the market shows a home win rate as high as 63.8% (priced at 1.38), giving significant recognition to TPS Doogu's strength. In terms of under goals, the price for the over (over balls) has dropped to 1.56, indicating strong market expectations for many goals in this match. Correct score predictions are concentrated at 2:0, 2:1, and 1:0, with overall data pointing to the home team controlling the match and scoring a decent number of goals.
Configuration and Risk Defense:
Considering TPS Dugu's deep handicap ([-1] handicap 1.78) may carry the risk of a one-goal margin (e.g., 2:1) causing a run, the highest confidence and stable executable asset is the highest priority for high goal expectancy [2.5] big; On the direction side, the core secondary setup is the home win.
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