Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+4.3%
Secondary
Market
—
Ordo
30.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
—
Result
Market
42.2%
Ordo
39.4%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-2.8%
Settled
Australian NPL - New South Wales · 2026-08-01 16:30
· Ordo
St George FC vs Southern Districts RaidersSt George FC vs Southern Districts Raiders
Predicted1-2
Actual2-3
Core configuration [2.5] large, secondary pick [0] water flow defense
Primary[2.5] Over✓SecondaryGuest[0]—ResultAway✓Goals O/U[2.5] Over
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Ordo probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Ordo %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth Analysis
This match features St George's FC hosting Southern Surprise Force (Australian National League - New South Wales), providing an in-depth analysis of market structure and market pricing pricing:
Winning Direction and Gray Area Constraints:
The latest market price is 'Home win 2.68 | Draw 3.55 | Away win 2.09', with an implied probability of Home 32.9% after margin trading and 24.9%. Customers: 42.2%.
Although the away team holds a certain advantage, their maximum direction win rate (42.2%) does not reach the strong 45% certainty threshold, making it a typical gray zone game. Win/Handicap home/away bets carry relatively high risk.
Goals Per Million and Expected Total Goals:
The data premium baseline is set at 2.5 goals, with the high zone (over ball) priced as low as 1.63 (low zone 2.13), which translates to a probability of about 61.3% for the over.
Combined with the correct score favorites (1:1, 1:2, 0:1), the market doubts both sides' ability to keep a clean sheet defensively, with open attacks and a clear expectation of a result of 3 or more goals.
Tactical Deployment Strategy:
According to the decision model, when direction confidence is insufficient, priority is given to core assets with the highest confidence in [2.5] high with a 60%+ implied hit rate.
The secondary bet is Away[0] (Asian handicap draw) as a balanced flow defense to hedge against the risk of a draw.
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