Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
—
Secondary
Market
44.0%
Lexis
62.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+18.0%
Result
Market
62.1%
Lexis
53.4%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-8.7%
Settled
Australian NPL - New South Wales · 2026-07-25 15:00
· Lexis
Southern Districts Raiders vs Marconi StallionsSouthern Districts Raiders vs Marconi Stallions
Predicted1-2
Actual2-1
The core setup is the handicap "Away [-1]," with the secondary option "[3.5] Under" combined with a 1:2 away win prediction
PrimaryGuest[-1]—Secondary[3.5] Under✓ResultAway✗Goals O/U[3.5] Under
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Lexis probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Lexis %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
