Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
—
Secondary
Market
57.0%
Lexis
60.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+3.0%
Result
Market
62.1%
Lexis
53.4%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-8.7%
Settled
Australian NPL - New South Wales · 2026-07-25 16:00
· Lexis
APIA Leichhardt vs UNSW FCAPIA Leichhardt vs UNSW FC
Predicted2-0
Actual4-1
Core setup: home team handicap Home [-1], secondary pick [3.5] Small, combined with control and low score prediction
PrimaryMain[-1]—Secondary[3.5] Under✗ResultHome✓Goals O/U[3.5] Under
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Lexis probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Lexis %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
