Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-4.6%
Secondary
Market
59.9%
Lexis
62.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+2.1%
Result
Market
53.8%
Lexis
49.2%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-4.6%
Settled
Australian NPL - New South Wales · 2026-07-25 15:30
· Lexis
NWS Spirit vs Western Sydney Wanderers BNWS Spirit vs Western Sydney Wanderers B
Predicted2-1
Actual0-4
Core configuration is home win, second pick [2.5] big, echoing the trend of high-scoring events
PrimaryHome✗Secondary[2.5] Over✓ResultHome✗Goals O/U[2.5] Over
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Lexis probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Lexis %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
深度分析
本場澳洲全國聯賽新南威爾斯賽事，由 NWS 精神主場迎戰西悉尼流浪者 B 隊。從市場隱含定價（主勝 1.64，對應勝率約 56%）來看，機構對主隊主場控制力與整體陣容結構給予顯著認可。西悉尼流浪者 B 隊作為青年近衛軍，球風大開大合，近期客場防線連續失球，但反擊端具備一定衝擊力。
