Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+5.3%
Secondary
Market
63.5%
Ordo
54.4%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-9.1%
Result
Market
63.5%
Ordo
54.4%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-9.1%
Settled
Korean Division 1 · 2026-08-01 18:30
· Ordo
Gangwon FC vs Bucheon FCGangwon FC vs Bucheon FC
Predicted2-0
Actual0-3
Core setup [2.5] Thin, second pick home win
Primary[2.5] Under✗SecondaryHome✗ResultHome✗Goals O/U[2.5] Under
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Ordo probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Ordo %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth Analysis
Event Overview and Market Structure
In this South Korean professional league match, FC Gangwon hosted FC Bucheon. According to market pricing from institutional sources, the market pricing for a home win are as low as 1.39 (with an implied win rate of about 63.5% after margin drawing), clearly showing a strong skeleton in strength. However, in the goal count market, the low zone (under goals) market pricing for [2.5] over have dropped sharply to 1.63, while the high zone (over) at 2.13** shows a very dominant trend, indicating a strong market bias toward low-scoring bets.
Tactical Matchups and Score Simulation
Expected goals limited: The top three favorites for correct score are 1:0 (4.7), 2:0 (5.4), and 1:1 / 2:1 (7.25). This reflects that the away team FC Bucheon is expected to adopt a low-pitched contracting defense away from home, while FC Gangwon controls the game, but their scoring efficiency and pace will slow down under dense defense.
Allocation Optimization and Risk Management: Due to the marginal risk of swings or net win in directional handicap markets, and the low marginal return on pure market pricing for home wins, the assets with the highest probability and most stable pricing are concentrated in [2.5] Fine. The secondary pick returns to Home win, anchoring the home team's strength advantage.
Risk Warning: Due to in-game rankings and injury data shifting to market structure anchoring, the overall allocation is centered on a low goal count widely agreed by the market.
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