Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+3.1%
Secondary
Market
64.2%
Ordo
53.4%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-10.8%
Result
Market
64.2%
Ordo
53.4%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-10.8%
Settled
Club Matches · 2026-08-01 00:00
· Ordo
Juventus vs NiceJuventus vs Nice
Predicted2-1
Actual2-0
Core setup is [2.5] high, second pick home win, estimated score 2:1
Primary[2.5] Over✗SecondaryHome✓ResultHome✓Goals O/U[2.5] Over
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Ordo probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Ordo %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth analysis
Tactics and lineup dynamics
This game is a club friendly match (2026-08-01). Juventus and Nice are both in the pre-season training stage. The characteristics of warm-up matches are usually accompanied by large-scale rotation of main players and substitutes in the second half. The tacit understanding and concentration on the defensive end are prone to fluctuations. Open attacks are the main trend of such events.
Market Pricing and Data Analysis
The market gives Juventus 1.37 for a home win, 4.25 for a draw, and 5.80 for an away win. After removing the margin, the implied home win probability is about 64.2%. The baseline of goal size is set at 2.5 goals (high area/large 1.57 | low area/thin 2.25). The pricing in the low area of the market is on the high side, reflecting that the organization clearly prevents the multi-goal pattern.
Execute configuration policy
In view of the frequent rotation of friendly matches and the risk of fluctuations in fighting spirit, there is a risk of small wins or defensive mistakes in Shenzhen Handicap. Therefore, the [2.5] Big with the highest market confidence is used as the first choice of asset allocation (primary), and the second choice is the `Main Victory' with the dominant team strength as the direction supplement.
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