Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+2.1%
Secondary
Market
—
Ordo
30.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
—
Result
Market
44.3%
Ordo
41.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-3.2%
Settled
Club Matches · 2026-08-01 21:00
· Ordo
Manchester Utd vs Atletico MadridManchester Utd vs Atletico Madrid
Predicted2-1
Actual2-1
Core build [2.5] is large, then choose main [0] Water Runway Defense
Primary[2.5] Over✓SecondaryMain[0]—ResultHome✓Goals O/U[2.5] Over
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Ordo probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Ordo %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth Analysis
This match is the 2026 club pre-season friendly, featuring Manchester United facing Atlético Madrid. According to the latest market pricing, Manchester United's win rate is about 44.3%, which is in the typical gray zone of 42%–52%, with insufficient directional certainty; However, the market rates the low zone at 1.54 (implied win rate about 62%) for 2.5 goals per game, indicating a strong consensus between funds and models regarding the defensive gaps in open offense and conditioning periods between the two teams during preseason open-play.
Tactically, during the warm-up phase, both sides faced large-scale substitutions and the need to test formations. Their defensive systems were far from as tight as the main game, making it easy for them to advance on multiple pitches in the second half due to key rotations. Overall, the risk of the steering wheel in this match is relatively high. The core configuration is the high-confidence [2.5] Large], with the secondary option paired with [Main[0]] for water flow defense.
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