Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+3.1%
Secondary
Market
80.7%
Ordo
66.7%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-14.0%
Result
Market
80.7%
Ordo
66.7%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-14.0%
Settled
Russian Women's Football Championship · 2026-08-01 19:00
· Ordo
FC Zenit Saint Petersburg (women) vs FC Krasnodar (women)FC Zenit Saint Petersburg (women) vs FC Krasnodar (women)
Predicted3-0
Actual3-1
Core configuration [2.5] High, secondary pick gives a handicap home-away draw Home [-2]
Primary[2.5] Over✓SecondaryMain[-2]—ResultHome✓Goals O/U[2.5] Over
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Ordo probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Ordo %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth Analysis
Tactics and Strength Landscape
As a top powerhouse in the Russian Women's Premier League, Zenit Women's team has extremely strong home control, with overall attack-defense transitions and wing pressure far surpassing Kasloda Women's. Kasłoda Women's team often employs a deep defensive formation when playing away against top league teams, but under intense continuous pressing, their defense has limited time to withstand pressure.
Market Pricing and Market Prediction
The market offers an extremely low market pricing of 1.09 for a home win (with an implied win rate of 80.7% after margin reduction), essentially establishing a huge advantage for Zenit Women. The handicap market opens at 'Home [-2]' (market pricing 2.26), which closely matches the favorites of 2:0 (4.85) and 3:0 (5.4). With the over-goal [2.5] price (1.54) significantly on the high side, the market is highly optimistic about Zenit Women's one-sided scoring ability.
Risk Warning
The network did not have an immediate injury list, so attention should be paid to whether Zenit Women, after securing an early victory, will substitute their main players early to control the game, which could affect the sustain of their attack in the second half.
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