Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+3.1%
Secondary
Market
—
Ordo
30.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
—
Result
Market
39.9%
Ordo
37.9%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-2.0%
Settled
Russian Women's Football Championship · 2026-08-01 16:00
· Ordo
FC Rostov (women) vs Razan Women's Football TeamFC Rostov (women) vs Razan Women's Football Team
Predicted1-0
Actual0-0
Core setup [2.5] is fine, then choose main [0] Water Flow Defense
Primary[2.5] Under✓SecondaryMain[0]—ResultHome✗Goals O/U[2.5] Under
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Ordo probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Ordo %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth Analysis
In this match of the Russian Women's Premier League, Rostov Women's team hosted Razan Women's team. Analysis of the latest market pricing and order structure:
Win-Draw-Loss High-Grey Zone Gaming: After the market draws, the probability of a home win is only about 39.9%, a draw is 30.7%, and an away win is 29.4%. The probabilities of the three are extremely diverse, and the implied probability of a draw has already exceeded the 28% risk red line, indicating that the two teams are evenly matched at the competitive level, and simply asset allocation on a win-draw-loss direction carries extremely high risk.
Goal asset allocation Bias: The market shows a highly consistent preference for low scores when pricing goals. [2.5] The low (under) is priced as low as 1.57 (implied probability about 60%+), with the top three correct score scores being 1:1 (5.5), 1:0 (5.7), and 0:0 (6.4). Both sides lacked strong attacking methods to quickly break through each other's defenses, and the halftime score was highly likely to be 0:0 or 1:0.
Strategic Allocation Logic: Due to insufficient confidence in direction, a red line is triggered for market selection decisions, prohibiting the use of win-draw-loss (result) or handicap home-away draw (handicap_had) as core assets. The highest confidence [2.5] fine is the core configuration; The secondary option uses Asian Handicap Home[0] (draw handicaps) for defense; if a draw occurs, the principal can be refunded, allowing for a hedging against the high probability of a draw.
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