Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+2.6%
Secondary
Market
—
Ordo
30.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
—
Result
Market
38.4%
Ordo
37.3%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-1.1%
Settled
Women Swedish Division 1 · 2026-08-01 20:00
· Ordo
Brommapojkarna Women vs Djurgårdens IF Fotboll (women)Brommapojkarna Women vs Djurgårdens IF Fotboll (women)
Predicted1-2
Actual2-1
Core configuration [2.5] large, secondary pick [0] water flow defense
Primary[2.5] Over✓SecondaryGuest[0]—ResultAway✗Goals O/U[2.5] Over
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Ordo probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Ordo %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth Analysis
The latest market pricing for this Women's Swedish Allsvenskan match (Blomapokhana Women vs Djurgåtens Women) shows a typical gray zone balance pattern (Home win 2.41 | Draw 3.45 | Away win 2.28). After excluding market margins, the probability of an away win is only 38.4%, and a home win is 36.3%. There is no clear advantage in the winner's favor, and asset allocation solely on the home/away side is extremely risky.
From the perspective of market structure and premium, the 2.5-goal high (over) is priced as low as 1.67 (implied probability about 58%), and the top three high-frequency predictions are 1:1, 1:2, and 2:1 respectively, with a strong focus on the 2 to 3 goals range. This reflects a lack of consistent clean sheets on defense and a relatively open attacking rhythm in both teams.
According to Handicap Decision Tree: When the highest probability of winning or losing is <45% and the probability of a draw reaches 25.4%, it is strictly forbidden to use 'result' or 'handicap_had' as the core configuration. The optimal strategy for this match is to set the highest probability of playing '[2.5] High' as primary (core allocation), supplemented by the Asian handicap 'Away[0]' as secondary, achieving a structure that balances returns and hedge.
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