Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+4.7%
Secondary
Market
—
Ordo
40.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
—
Result
Market
72.3%
Ordo
60.6%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-11.6%
Settled
Women Swedish Division 1 · 2026-08-01 00:00
· Ordo
Malmo Women vs Bitia Women's Football TeamMalmo Women vs Bitia Women's Football Team
Predicted2-0
Actual0-0
Core lineup [3.5] is thin, and the second pick is the main pick [-1.5], with solid defense and offense
Primary[3.5] Under✓SecondaryHome[-1.5]—ResultHome✗Goals O/U[3.5] Under
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Ordo probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Ordo %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth analysis
1. Market pricing and winning rate structure
The main win is extremely established: The Mamo Women's Football Team's main win price is 1.21, and the implied winning rate after deducting is 72.3%. The market is highly optimistic about its home victory.
Popularity is highly concentrated: The first three waves are 2:0 (6.3), 2:1 (6.9) and 1:0 (7.25), reflecting the market expectation that the Mamo Women’s Football Team has a high probability of winning with a goal difference of 1 to 2 goals.
2. Goal size and offensive and defensive boundaries
3.5 ball threshold is strongly on the thin side: The benchmark line for large and thin balls is 3.5 ball, and the low zone (thin) price is as low as 1.56 (the probability of playing is about 64%). The market is clearly asset allocation on low-scoring results.
Tactical Layout: The visiting team Bitiya Women's Football Team is expected to respond with a very deep defense line. Although the Mamo Women's Football Team has the upper hand, the overall rhythm is more focused on controlling the field and winning steadily rather than blindly winning with a big score.
3. Configure execution strategy
Core configuration: [3.5] Fine The probability of playing is about 64%, which is the core asset with the highest certainty and the best risk defense in the game.
Second Choice Auxiliary: Estimated score 2:0, Second Choice Handicap Main [-1.5] can accurately correspond to the dominant pattern of the home team winning by two goals.
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