Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+8.3%
Secondary
Market
—
Ordo
30.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
—
Result
Market
27.0%
Ordo
28.9%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+1.9%
Settled
Women Africa Cup of Nations · 2026-08-02 04:00
· Ordo
Nigeria Women vs Zambia women's national football teamNigeria Women vs Zambia women's national football team
Predicted1-1
Actual1-0
Core setup [2.5] is fine, then choose main [0] Water Flow Defense
Primary[2.5] Under✓SecondaryMain[0]—ResultDraw✗Goals O/U[2.5] Under
✓
Unlock market reference pricing and deep analysis for this match — full-market pricing, weight allocation, actuarial narrative, and recommendation grid.
Virtual credits are for statistical research only · Unlocks are permanent for this match
✓Unlocked · Loading deep analysis…
★
Deep analysis
🔒
Loading quantitative analysis
Failed to load analysis. Please refresh the page.
Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Ordo probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Ordo %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth Analysis
Tactics and Market Game Summary
In this Women's Africa Cup of Nations match, Nigeria faced Zambia. The latest market price is 1.99 for a home win (44.2% implied probability after margin adjustment), placing them in the gray zone of 42%–52% of wins and losses, indicating that the market does not have absolute confidence in Nigeria's women's team dominating. For correct scores, 1:1 (market pricing 6.2) and 1:0 (market pricing 6.9) rank high in the top two, and the correct score at halftime 0:0 is only 2.83, reflecting a strong market consensus on conservative defense in the first half and tight offense and defense throughout the match.
Cup Attributes and Configuration Logic
The elimination and group stage of the Women's Cup have higher defensive vigilance and rotation risks. With the probability of winning or losing dispersed (home win 44.2%, draw 27.0%, away win 28.8%), according to decision tree rules, it is forbidden to use a win ('result') or handicap ('handicap_had') as the preferred asset. The baseline for goals is set at 2.5 goals (average in the low and high zones), combining tactical tug-of-war and low score accuracy. '[2.5] Under' is the most confident playable setup for the match; The second choice is Asian Handicap 'Home[0]' as the draw run-down defense, with a risk draw in the hedging match.
Report content is protected; unauthorized copying or redistribution is prohibited.