Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+4.0%
Secondary
Market
—
Ordo
30.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
—
Result
Market
48.3%
Ordo
43.6%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-4.7%
Settled
Korean Division 2 · 2026-08-02 18:30
· Ordo
Gimpo FC vs Gyeongnam FCGimpo FC vs Gyeongnam FC
Predicted1-0
Actual1-1
Core setup [2.5] is fine, then choose main [0] Water Flow Defense
Primary[2.5] Under✓SecondaryMain[0]—ResultHome✗Goals O/U[2.5] Under
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Ordo probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Ordo %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth Analysis
According to the latest information on the 20th round of the 2026 South Korean K2 League season, Gimpo FC currently ranks 7th with 26 points from 18 matches, followed closely by FC Gyeongnam at 9th place with 24 points from 18 matches. The two teams are only 2 points apart in the standings, both in the mid-table edge, and both face the pressure to advance to the playoff zone.
Gimpo FC has focused on defensive counterattacks and high-pressure battles this season, scoring 21 goals and conceding 20 in 18 matches. Their playing style is extremely tight and their offense and defense pace is slow; FC Gyeongnam has scored 26 goals and conceded 26 in 18 matches. Their defensive stability is somewhat lacking, but their attack has some attacking ability. In the first leg of the 2026 season (March 22), Gyeongnam narrowly won 1-0 at home.
Market institutions rate a home win at 1.83, with an implied home win probability of about 48.3% and a draw of 28.5%. The baseline for under goals is set at 2.5 goals (under low market pricing 1.65, implied under probability reaches 58%+). Considering Gimpo's tight home defensive system and the fact that their previous encounters have often been defensive battles, the overall pace of this match was relatively slow. The gray zone is 48.3% slightly biased toward the home team, but the risk of a draw cannot be ignored. The highest confidence asset is [2.5] small.
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