Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+4.3%
Secondary
Market
—
Ordo
30.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
—
Result
Market
43.6%
Ordo
40.5%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-3.1%
Settled
Korean Division 2 · 2026-08-02 18:30
· Ordo
Jeonnam Dragons vs Paju FrontierJeonnam Dragons vs Paju Frontier
Predicted1-0
Actual1-2
Core setup [2.5] is fine, then choose main [0] Water Flow Defense
Primary[2.5] Under✗SecondaryMain[0]—ResultHome✗Goals O/U[2.5] Under
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Ordo probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Ordo %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth Analysis
Regarding the K League 2 matchup between Jeonnam Cheonryong and Paju Frontline, combining market pricing and team characteristics, the following core analysis is made:
Market Implied Probability and Divergence in Direction: The market currently gives home win 2.02 (about 43.6% after margin adjustment), draw 3.10 (28.4%), and away win 3.15 (28.0%). The home team's win rate is in the gray zone of 42–52%, and the implied probability of a draw and away win is 56.4%, indicating low confidence in directionality.
Goals Over/Under asset allocation Advantage: The baseline is set at 2.5 goals, with the Over area priced at 1.95 and the Under at 1.75 (with a 57.1% probability of Low Zone). In the correct score leaderboard, 1:1 (5.9) and 1:0 (6.6) are at the top, reflecting a strong market consensus on the trend toward low goals in this match.
Allocation Strategy: When the probability of winning or losing does not reach a high confidence threshold of 45%, according to decision tree standards, choose the most reliable hit [2.5] detail as the preferred asset (Primary); The secondary option is to pair with Asian handicap Home[0] for a draw run defense (Secondary).
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