Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+5.0%
Secondary
Market
—
Ordo
30.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
—
Result
Market
31.5%
Ordo
29.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-2.6%
Settled
Scottish Premier · 2026-08-02 23:30
· Ordo
Hibernian vs MotherwellHibernian vs Motherwell
Predicted1-1
Actual1-2
Core setup [2.5] is fine, then choose main [0] Water Flow Defense
Primary[2.5] Under✗SecondaryMain[0]—ResultDraw✗Goals O/U[2.5] Under
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Ordo probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Ordo %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth Analysis
Tactics and Institutional Pricing Battles
Hibernian hosts Motherwell, with the latest implied market price at 1.85 to win (about 47.7% after margin adjustment), sitting in the typical gray range of 42%–52%. Although the home team holds home advantage, the certainty of direction is not enough to support a direct home win. The top three favorites in the correct score market are 1:1 (the top favorite), 1:0, and 2:1, reflecting the institutional high level of caution against a deadlock between the two sides.
Deployment and Defense Strategy
Under the regular season league nature, when the probability of a home win falls in the gray zone and the institution's implied draw probability reaches 27.1%, it is not advisable to use the home-and-away sum as the preferred asset based on the data model decision tree. The baseline for goals is set at 2.5 goals (with 1.85 water level in both the high and low sections), and combined with the characteristic that the correct score is concentrated under 2 goals, a self-rated score of [2.5] small indicates higher confidence in playing. To hedge against the risk of a 1:1 draw, the secondary configuration uses Asian Handicap Home[0], which provides withdrawal (float) protection in the event of a draw.
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