Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+3.7%
Secondary
Market
—
Ordo
30.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
—
Result
Market
41.5%
Ordo
37.3%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-4.2%
Settled
Scottish Premier · 2026-08-02 00:30
· Ordo
Aberdeen vs HeartsAberdeen vs Hearts
Predicted1-2
Actual2-1
Core configuration [2.5] large, secondary pick [0] water flow defense
Primary[2.5] Over✓SecondaryGuest[0]—ResultAway✗Goals O/U[2.5] Over
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Ordo probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Ordo %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth Analysis
Market Pricing and Strength Characteristics: This match is the Scottish Premiership, with Aberdeen hosting Hearts. The market is asset allocation on a draw-half or draw/draw pattern for away teams. After adjusting for margins, Hesse's win rate is about 39.2%, Aberdeen's 33.6%, and a draw 27.2%. Overall, it's a typical 'gray zone even-match' matchup, with win rates for single win directions not reaching the high 45% confidence threshold.
Offensive and Defensive Patterns and Over-Under Trends: The market rates the 2.5-ball Over at a low of 1.70, implying a play probability close to 58%. Regarding correct score predictions, the top three high-frequency combinations are 1:1, 1:2, and 0:1 respectively, indicating that the market expects the basic score structure to easily reach the 3-goal boundary. Considering the high level of attack and defense between the two teams during the league stage, the confidence in goal over/under, the goal zone, is significantly better than the three pure win and loss categories.
* Strategy Deployment: Follow the asset allocation decision tree, and when the probability of winning or losing is poor, set [2.5] large as the highest confidence core allocation (Primary); The second choice is to use the Asian handicap Away[0] for a draw move and hedging defense.
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