Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+5.3%
Secondary
Market
67.7%
Ordo
57.6%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-10.1%
Result
Market
67.7%
Ordo
57.6%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-10.1%
Settled
Australian NPL - Queensland · 2026-08-02 12:30
· Ordo
Brisbane Roar B vs Moreton City ExcelsiorBrisbane Roar B vs Moreton City Excelsior
Predicted1-3
Actual2-0
Core configuration [3.5] large, second choice is guest win, model estimate 1-3
Primary[3.5] Over✗SecondaryAway✗ResultAway✗Goals O/U[3.5] Over
✗
Unlock market reference pricing and deep analysis for this match — full-market pricing, weight allocation, actuarial narrative, and recommendation grid.
Virtual credits are for statistical research only · Unlocks are permanent for this match
✓Unlocked · Loading deep analysis…
★
Deep analysis
🔒
Loading quantitative analysis
Failed to load analysis. Please refresh the page.
Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Ordo probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Ordo %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth Analysis
In this Australian National League Queensland match, Brisbane Roar B hosted Moreton City Elite. According to the latest market pricing, the visiting Moreton City Elite team has a strong institutional bias with a win market pricing of 1.30, with an implied win rate of 67.7% after margin trading; Meanwhile, the home team, Brisbane Roar B, is estimated to have only a 15.7% chance of winning, reflecting a clear gap in roster depth and league strength between the two sides.
For the goal market, the institutions set a high baseline of 3.5 goals, with over market pricing as low as 1.63, which closely matches the predicted directions of the popular correct score options (1:2, 1:3, 0:2). Youth teams typically have a faster tempo of attack and defense but tend to have volatile defensive focus. Facing the more experienced and skilled Moreton City elite team, it is easy to form an open attacking formation. Combining data premiums with tactical matchup, there is a very high confidence that the goal tally for this match will surpass 3.5 goals.
Report content is protected; unauthorized copying or redistribution is prohibited.
