Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+2.6%
Secondary
Market
—
Ordo
30.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
—
Result
Market
48.5%
Ordo
43.6%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-4.9%
Settled
Australian NPL - Queensland · 2026-08-02 12:30
· Ordo
Magic Utd vs Olympic FCMagic Utd vs Olympic FC
Predicted1-3
Actual0-3
Core setup [3.5] large, secondary pick [-0.5] locked in the win
Primary[3.5] Over✗SecondaryAway[-0.5]—ResultAway✓Goals O/U[3.5] Over
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Ordo probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Ordo %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth Analysis
Tactics and Tournament Landscape
In this match of the Queensland National League (NPL Queensland), Magic United hosted Olympic FC at home. From the perspective of market structure and opening logic, the opening goal baseline was set at 3.5 goals (high zone price 1.67), fully reflecting the Queensland league's high-tempo, attack-focused style over defense. Olympic FC has a slight edge in overall attacking efficiency and the quality of away counterattacks, with a market market pricing of 48.5% (equivalent to market pricing of 1.82), clearly holding psychological and strength advantages.
Market Pricing and Risk Hedging
Although Olympic FC's overall strength is favored by the market, their win rate is in the gray zone of 42%–52%, and their defense is often prone to mistakes away from home. Given the strong market preference and capital injection for the [3.5] high zone (over-over), and the favored bet for bets on high-scoring outcomes like 1:2 and 2:2, the most stable cornerstone asset for this match should be focused on under goals, with the second option to defend directionally using handicap bets.
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