Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+4.6%
Secondary
Market
51.3%
Ordo
46.4%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-4.9%
Result
Market
51.3%
Ordo
46.4%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-4.9%
Settled
Australian NPL - New South Wales · 2026-08-02 13:00
· Ordo
Rockdale Ilinden vs Manly UtdRockdale Ilinden vs Manly Utd
Predicted2-1
Actual1-1
Core setup is [2.5] high, second pick is home win, estimated full-game score 2:1
Primary[2.5] Over✗SecondaryHome✗ResultHome✗Goals O/U[2.5] Over
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Ordo probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Ordo %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth Analysis
This match was part of the New South Wales National Premier League (NPL NSW) regular league schedule in Australia, with Lockdale Eliage hosting Manley United.
Fundamentals and Lineup Search:
Rockdale Ilinden has performed impressively in the league this season, consistently holding the top and top positions for a long time. Their home firepower is strong, and their overall attacking stats rank among the top tier in the league.
Manly United is in the lower mid-table with a relatively high away goal contending rate, making their defensive system vulnerable when facing the league's top four teams.
Market Pricing and Data Analysis:
The home win market pricing are priced at 1.72, with a win rate of about 51.3% after margining, and the market gives the home team a definite handicap.
The baseline for goals is set at 2.5 goals, with the 'over' (high zone) priced as low as 1.64. The market is strongly optimistic about the trend of open duels and more goals for this match.
The most favored score for correct score is 2:1 (implying rank 1), and with both teams' attacking styles, the probability of scoring over 3 goals in the match is extremely high.
Tactical Configuration Decisions:
Given that the probability of a home win being over is 51.3% (42%–52% gray area/average range), and the self-assessment confidence in over/over goals is higher (≥60%), according to the decision tree rules, [2.5] over is chosen as the preferred configuration for highest confidence.
The secondary selection is supplemented with home win (result) to strengthen the home team's recent form advantage and home firepower.
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