Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+5.8%
Secondary
Market
—
Ordo
30.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
—
Result
Market
48.5%
Ordo
44.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-4.5%
Settled
Australian NPL - New South Wales · 2026-08-02 12:30
· Ordo
Sydney Utd vs NWS SpiritSydney Utd vs NWS Spirit
Predicted1-0
Actual2-0
Core setup [2.5] is fine, then choose main [0] Water Flow Defense
Primary[2.5] Under✓SecondaryMain[0]—ResultHome✓Goals O/U[2.5] Under
✓
Unlock market reference pricing and deep analysis for this match — full-market pricing, weight allocation, actuarial narrative, and recommendation grid.
Virtual credits are for statistical research only · Unlocks are permanent for this match
✓Unlocked · Loading deep analysis…
★
Deep analysis
🔒
Loading quantitative analysis
Failed to load analysis. Please refresh the page.
Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Ordo probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Ordo %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth Analysis
This Australian National League - New South Wales event features Sydney United hosting NWS Spirit. According to the latest market pricing, Sydney United's home win is priced at 1.82 (with an implied probability of about 48.5% after margin adjustment), falling into the 42%–52% tactical gray zone. Without significant one-sided injury or suspension benefits, direct asset allocation on the outcome carries high uncertainty.
Looking at the market structure and goal difference trends, the total goals for 2.5 goals is priced at 1.77 (low 1.77), significantly lower than the high zone at 1.93**. The top three favorites for correct score are 1:0 (6.1), 1:1 (6.4), and 2:1 (7.25), indicating a strong market consensus on the defensive intensity and low-score pattern of this match.
According to decision tree rules, when directional win probability is in the gray area and confidence is limited, prohibiting it is forbidden to use the winning direction (result/handicap_had) as the preferred configuration. Therefore, the preferred asset allocation for this market is [2.5] Small; The second choice uses the Home[0] Asian Handicap Draw as the asset for defending against draws.
Report content is protected; unauthorized copying or redistribution is prohibited.
