Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-11.8%
Secondary
Market
72.2%
Ordo
60.4%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-11.8%
Result
Market
72.2%
Ordo
60.4%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-11.8%
Settled
Russian Premier · 2026-08-02 23:15
· Ordo
FK Krasnodar vs Fakel VoronezhFK Krasnodar vs Fakel Voronezh
Predicted2-0
Actual3-2
Core setup for home win, secondary pick handicap home/away, home[-1], model prediction 2-0.
PrimaryHome✓SecondaryMain[-1]—ResultHome✓Goals O/U[2.5] Under
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Ordo probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Ordo %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth Analysis
From the perspective of on-site market pricing and tactical comparisons, Krasnodar showed strong dominance in this home match against Fakel Voronezh. The market has priced a home win at 1.22 as an ultra-low price, and after marginalization, the implied win rate reaches 72.2%, fully reflecting the huge gap between the two sides in overall roster depth, offensive efficiency, and home-court control.
Tactics and Market Pricing Analysis:
Home Possession and Pressing: Kasnoda is known for controlling the pace of the game at home, and their multi-pronged attacking ability in midfield and forward creates constant pressure on the visitors' defense. Fagaal, limited by his squad, mainly relied on heavy low-post defense combined with a few counterattacks.
Boundaries of attack and defense and correct score distribution: The market favorites are 2:0 (5.5), 1:0 (5.7), and 3:0 (6.8), indicating that a clean sheet win for the home team is a highly likely event. Fagaard's scoring ability away from home is weak, making it difficult to pose a real threat to the home team's defense.
Allocation Strategy: When the direction for a home win is clear but the return on a single win is low, home win is chosen as the most reliable cornerstone asset, paired with handicap home/away[-1] (1.84) to counter a 2:0 net win by two goals, achieving a balanced and efficient setup.
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