Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+3.1%
Secondary
Market
57.7%
Ordo
50.6%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-7.1%
Result
Market
57.7%
Ordo
50.6%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-7.1%
Settled
Uruguayan Division 1 · 2026-08-02 22:57
· Ordo
Racing Club Montevideo vs Boston RiverRacing Club Montevideo vs Boston River
Predicted2-0
Actual1-0
Core configuration [2.5] thin, second pick home win, model estimate 2-0.
Primary[2.5] Under✓SecondaryHome✓ResultHome✓Goals O/U[2.5] Under
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Ordo probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Ordo %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth Analysis
In this Uruguayan Série A match, Racing Montevideo hosted Boston River. After evaluating the overall tactical clash and market pricing structure, the match showed the following core trends:
Expected Goals Combined with Low Scores: The market sets a 2.5-goal baseline, with the low (thin) priced as low as 1.57, which translates to a 60% implied probability of de-slapping. Popular correct score options are concentrated in 1:0 (4.7), 2:0 (5.8), and 0:0 (6.9), strongly targeting dull matches with low total goals.
Home Team Advantage and Offensive Efficiency: Montevideo's home win index is 1.53 (57.7% win rate without drawback), showing a clear advantage. The home team's usual style of play leans towards positional control, while Boston River's away defense is decent but lacks counterattack threat, so the pace of the match is expected to be controlled by the home team.
Asset Allocation Priority: When the home win market pricing have been fully squeezed, play the most certain and most significant data premium [2.5] Fine as the core primary promotion; In terms of direction, home wins are used as a secondary setup, forming a stable lineup with an estimated score of 2-0.
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