Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+6.8%
Secondary
Market
65.9%
Ordo
56.2%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-9.7%
Result
Market
65.9%
Ordo
56.2%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-9.7%
Settled
Swedish Division 1 · 2026-08-02 22:30
· Ordo
AIK Solna vs OrgryteAIK Solna vs Orgryte
Predicted2-0
Actual0-3
Core specs [3.5] Narrow, second pick AIK Suna for home win
Primary[3.5] Under✓SecondaryHome✗ResultHome✗Goals O/U[3.5] Under
✓
Unlock market reference pricing and deep analysis for this match — full-market pricing, weight allocation, actuarial narrative, and recommendation grid.
AIK Football Team, the full name of the Popular Sports Association Football Team, commonly known as AIK Souna, is a football club located in Solna, north of Stockholm, Sweden, and is part of the AIK Sports Association. The club currently belongs to the Swedish Superliga, Sweden's top league.
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Ordo probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Ordo %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth Analysis
In this Swedish Allsvenskan match, AIK Suna hosted Okiti. According to the latest market pricing, the home win market pricing are as low as 1.34 (about 65.9% implied probability after margin adjustment), demonstrating AIK Suna's clear advantage in overall strength and home momentum; The away win index stands at 6.2, so the away team's chances of upset are quite limited.
It is worth noting that the baseline for the data premium for this match is set at the high zone threshold of 3.5 goals, with the low bracket priced as low as 1.51 (implied probability as high as 66.2%), indicating that market actuarial models highly expect AIK Souna to dominate the game and suppress defense, with a low probability of a 4-goal or more large scoreline. The top three favorites (2:0, 2:1, 1:0) also perfectly fit the home team's narrow win and control tactics.
Based on comprehensive strength assessment and market trends, the highest confidence asset for this session is [3.5] Small, with AIK Suna Home Win as the secondary hedging allocation.
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