Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+5.8%
Secondary
Market
—
Ordo
30.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
—
Result
Market
49.2%
Ordo
44.3%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-4.9%
Settled
Chilean Division 1 · 2026-08-03 00:27
· Ordo
Deportes Concepcion vs Universidad CatolicaDeportes Concepcion vs Universidad Catolica
Predicted1-2
Actual3-0
Core configuration [2.5] large, secondary pick [0] water flow defense
Primary[2.5] Over✓SecondaryGuest[0]—ResultAway✗Goals O/U[2.5] Over
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Ordo probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Ordo %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth Analysis
Tactical and Market Pricing Analysis:
In this Chilean Serie A match, Sporting Concepcen hosted Université Pontifique Pocéca. The latest market prices are: away win 1.79 (implied probability after margin is about 49.2%), draw 3.35, and home win 3.60. The away win rate is in the statistical gray zone of 42%–52%, and the direction of wins and losses has not reached the threshold of absolute control.
In the correct score pricing structure, the most popular bets are 1:1 (6.3), 0:1 (7.0), and 1:2 (7.25), indicating that the market expects the away team to have the advantage while the home team has the ability to break through defensive gaps. The over/under baseline is set at [2.5] goals, with the over area priced at 1.77, reflecting the wide transition between attack and defense. With directional win rates in the gray zone and lack of in-game data supplementation, the decision tree model is used to prioritize the highest confidence of goals over and under [2.5] over, followed by the Asian handicap as a draw bet defense.
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