Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+2.6%
Secondary
Market
61.6%
Ordo
53.4%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-8.2%
Result
Market
61.6%
Ordo
53.4%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-8.2%
Settled
Chilean Division 1 · 2026-08-03 05:27
· Ordo
Universidad Chile vs HuachipatoUniversidad Chile vs Huachipato
Predicted2-1
Actual2-0
Core allocation [2.5] high, second pick home win
Primary[2.5] Over✗SecondaryHome✓ResultHome✓Goals O/U[2.5] Over
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Ordo probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Ordo %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth Analysis
Universiti Chile hosted Ho Chi Pado at home, with the market offering a deep market pricing of 1.43 for a home win. After pushing the market pricing, the implied win rate reached 61.6%, showing the objective difference in overall strength and home momentum between the two teams.
Attack and Handicap Linkage: The market supports a high zone with goals over 2.5 goals and over 1.61 goals (implied probability about 58.5%), combined with correct score market pricing of 1:0, 2:0, and 2:1, all tied at 6.8, reflecting the home team's sufficient expected goals and control in the penalty area.
Tactical Characteristics: At home ground, Universitas Chile tends to control the tempo through pressing in midfield and attack, while Houstrop tends to make gaps when facing intense pressing away from home. The matchup between the two teams is expected to show the home team controlling the attack.
Configuration Logic: Given the strong support of 2.5-ball over-ball data and high alignment with score models, [2.5] big is the preferred executable asset with the highest confidence; Strengthen the team with home wins to prevent the home team from winning 2-1 or 3-1.
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