Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+5.4%
Secondary
Market
67.9%
Ordo
52.7%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-15.2%
Result
Market
67.9%
Ordo
52.7%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-15.2%
Settled
Danish Superliga · 2026-08-03 00:00
· Ordo
Silkeborg IF vs CopenhagenSilkeborg IF vs Copenhagen
Predicted1-2
Actual1-3
Core configuration [3.5] Narrow, second pick Copenhagen away win, model estimate score 1:2
Primary[3.5] Under✗SecondaryAway✓ResultAway✓Goals O/U[3.5] Under
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Ordo probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Ordo %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth Analysis
In this Danish Superliga, Silkeborg hosted Copenhagen. On-the-spot market pricing strongly favors Copenhagen, with an implied probability of an away win reaching 60.5% (equivalent to a win rate of about 1.46). Looking at correct scores, the top three most popular scorers in the market are 1:2 (7.0), 1:1 (8.5), and 0:2 (8.5), all concentrated in the range of total goals scored between 2 and 3.
Tactically, although Silkeborg has high possession at home, when facing Copenhagen's high pressing and counterattack efficiency, their defensive transitions often reveal gaps; Copenhagen's away style is relatively pragmatic, often winning matches with a 1-2 goal margin to settle the game. Although the data premium baseline is set at 3.5 goals, the low zone [3.5] narrow threshold is only 1.66, indicating a strong market bias toward a narrower defensive side. Overall, Copenhagen has a clear direction, but the assets with the highest margin of safety are those with controlled total goals [3.5] Small.
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