Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+3.0%
Secondary
Market
84.6%
Ordo
69.2%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-15.4%
Result
Market
84.6%
Ordo
69.2%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-15.4%
Settled
Women Mexican Premier · 2026-08-04 09:06
· Ordo
Santos Laguna Women vs CF America WomenSantos Laguna Women vs CF America Women
Predicted0-4
Actual0-3
Core configuration [3.5] large, second pick away wins, model estimate 0-4.
Primary[3.5] Over✗SecondaryAway✓ResultAway✓Goals O/U[3.5] Over
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Ordo probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Ordo %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth Analysis
In this Mexican Women's Super League, Naguinya Women's team hosted the powerhouse CF America Women's team. From market pricing, the market pricing for an away win are as low as 1.05 (implied win rate as high as 84.6%), indicating a significant gap between the two teams in overall strength, roster depth, and recent form.
Tactics and Strength Landscape
Naguanya Women's Football Team: In recent years, they have mostly been in the lower mid-table of the Mexican Women's Super League. When facing top clubs, their defense is weaker and they struggle to withstand intense pressing and sustained attacks at home.
CF America Women's Team: As a top title contender in the league, their attacking firepower is extremely strong. When facing mid-to-lower mid-table teams with significant defensive gaps, they often display dominant dominance and multi-pronged scoring ability.
Handicap and Data Actuarial Analysis
Goals Over/Under Goals: The market baseline is at 3.5 goals (high zone price 1.62), reflecting strong institutional optimism that this match will turn into an open-ended attacking battle dominated by the away team.
Correct score pricing: implying the top three scores—0:3, 0:2, and 1:3—all point to a dominant pattern where the away team wins by 3 or more goals.
Asset Allocation: Against a backdrop of extreme strength disparity, the core allocation uses [3.5] large as the most confident executable asset, followed by Away Win as the stable pairing.
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