Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+6.4%
Secondary
Market
62.1%
Ordo
53.4%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-8.7%
Result
Market
62.1%
Ordo
53.4%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-8.7%
Settled
Women Mexican Premier · 2026-08-04 00:00
· Ordo
Atletico San Luis Women vs Toluca WomenAtletico San Luis Women vs Toluca Women
Predicted1-2
Actual1-4
Core Configuration [3.5] Small, second pick Toluca Women's 'Away Win'
Primary[3.5] Under✗SecondaryAway✓ResultAway✓Goals O/U[3.5] Under
✗
Unlock market reference pricing and deep analysis for this match — full-market pricing, weight allocation, actuarial narrative, and recommendation grid.
Virtual credits are for statistical research only · Unlocks are permanent for this match
✓Unlocked · Loading deep analysis…
★
Deep analysis
🔒
Loading quantitative analysis
Failed to load analysis. Please refresh the page.
Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Ordo probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Ordo %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth Analysis
Tactics and Strength Structure: Toluca Femenil Women clearly outperform Atlético San Luis Femenil in squad depth and efficiency in transitions. Toluca possesses strong pressing and quick advancement in the attacking third; When St. Louis plays at home, the team often uses a low-drop, contracting defense. Their defensive resistance is decent, but their attacking threat is relatively limited.
Market Pricing and Handicap Analysis: The market is open at away win 1.41 (implied win rate of about 62.1% after margin adjustment), with the handicap set at Away One Handicap [-1], reflecting the away team's solid overall directional advantage. However, the baseline for goals under opened at 3.5 goals (high zone 1.91 |). Low zone 1.79), considering that St. Louis Women's home team mostly plays defense instead of attacking, and Toluca's away game is tempo-controlled, the probability of scoring 4 or more goals is very high.
Asset Allocation Decision: Odd [-1] There is a risk of movement at 1:2 or 0:1 scorelines, so the core allocation is chosen with the highest confidence (>58%) [3.5] Fine as the core allocation (Primary), and the secondary option is the clear Away Win (Secondary), achieving a stable structure balancing certainty and yield.
Report content is protected; unauthorized copying or redistribution is prohibited.