Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-15.1%
Secondary
Market
59.3%
Ordo
63.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+3.7%
Result
Market
74.1%
Ordo
59.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-15.1%
Settled
South East Asian Championship · 2026-08-04 21:00
· Ordo
Philippines national football team vs ThailandPhilippines national football team vs Thailand
Predicted1-2
Actual0-1
Core setup is away win, second pick is [2.5] high
PrimaryAway✓Secondary[2.5] Over✗ResultAway✓Goals O/U[2.5] Over
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Ordo probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Ordo %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth Analysis
Tactics and Combat Power Comparison
As a traditional powerhouse in Southeast Asian football, the Thailand team (War Elephants) significantly surpasses the Philippines in overall possession systems, creative attacking creativity up front, and squad depth. In recent years, the Philippines has relied on dense defense combined with low counterattacks, but facing Thailand's intense high pressing and combined cross-play from the wing, their defense is under tremendous pressure.
Market Pricing and Data Interpretation
The market offers Thailand away win market pricing of 1.31, which translates to an implied win rate of about 67.3% after margin adjustments, indicating overwhelming market support for Thailand. The baseline for under/under goals is [2.5], with the High Zone (High) priced at 1.56, significantly lower than the Low Zone (Under) at 2.27, indicating strong market expectations for a high-goal result.
Asset Allocation Logic
Thailand's overall advantages are clear, with high confidence in the home-away and 'away win' strategies (self-rated win rate 70%), meeting the core requirements of the primary system; Given Thailand's offensive energy on the away side and the Philippines' defensive resilience, the second pick paired with a self-rated 63% chance of playing [2.5] is high, with an estimated score of 1:2.
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