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Market implied pricing vs Ordo probability

Primary

Market 73.5%

Ordo 61.1%

-12.4%

Secondary

Market —

Ordo 35.0%

—

Result

Market 73.5%

Ordo 61.1%

-12.4%

Settled

Russian Cup · 2026-08-05 23:30 · Ordo

Spartak Moscow vs FC Orenburg Spartak Moscow vs FC Orenburg

Predicted 2-0

Actual 5-1

核心配置主勝，次選主[-1.5]，模型預估 2-0。

Primary Home Secondary Home[-1.5] Result Home Goals O/U [3.5] Under

Market reference pricing

主客和

Home win

1.2

Market implied 83.3%

Draw

5.3

Market implied 18.9%

Away win

9.0

Market implied 11.1%

半場主客和

Home win

1.54

Market implied 64.9%

Draw

2.72

Market implied 36.8%

Away win

8.0

Market implied 12.5%

入球大細

[3/3.5]

Over

1.97

Market implied 50.8%

Under

1.74

Market implied 57.5%

[3.5]

Over

2.22

Market implied 45.0%

Under

1.58

Market implied 63.3%

[4.5]

Over

3.5

Market implied 28.6%

Under

1.25

Market implied 80.0%

讓球主客和

主[-2]

2.9

Market implied 34.5%

和[-2]

3.95

Market implied 25.3%

客[+2]

1.84

Market implied 54.3%

主[-3]

5.3

Market implied 18.9%

和[-3]

5.1

Market implied 19.6%

客[+3]

1.32

Market implied 75.8%

波膽

Home

1:0

7.75

2:0

6.3

2:1

7.5

3:0

7.5

3:1

9.25

3:2

21.0

Draw

0:0

17.0

1:1

10.0

2:2

17.0

3:3

50.0

Away

0:1

26.0

0:2

40.0

1:2

21.0

0:3

125.0

1:3

50.0

半場波膽

Home

1:0

3.0

2:0

4.75

2:1

12.0

3:0

11.0

3:1

35.0

3:2

150.0

Draw

0:0

3.3

1:1

8.0

2:2

60.0

3:3

800.0

Away

0:1

11.0

0:2

40.0

1:2

40.0

0:3

400.0

1:3

300.0

Recent form

Spartak Moscow

2026-08-03 艾卡馬特 1-2

FC Orenburg

L W

2026-08-02 辛尼特 0-3
2026-07-27 羅斯托夫 2-1

Other matches same day

Team dossier

Spartak Moscow

莫斯科斯巴達克足球俱樂部是一支俄羅斯足球會，在苏联时期乃至俄罗斯足球历史上都是一支劲旅。曾经 12 次捧起苏联联赛冠军奖杯（仅次于基辅迪纳摩），10 次获得俄罗斯足球超级联赛冠军，10 次获得苏联杯赛冠军，3 次赢得俄罗斯杯赛冠军。

波克羅夫-斯特列什捏沃區 · Lukoil Arena · Founded 1922

FC Orenburg

Orenburg Football Club is a Russian professional football club located in Orenburg, founded in 1976. It competes in the Russian Football Premier League.

· Founded 1976

View league profile →

Team dossier content is sourced from public encyclopedias and is for reference only.

Deep analysis

Asset weight allocation

Market implied pricing vs Ordo probability

Dimension	Market implied %	Ordo %	Premium rate

Actuarial narrative

This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.

深度分析

戰術與陣容動態：莫斯科斯巴達在俄羅斯盃主場作戰，整體實力與板陣深度顯著高於 FC 奧倫堡。雖然盃賽普遍存在部分主力輪換的風險，但莫斯科斯巴達在中前場的控球與陣地戰破局能力依然佔據主導；反觀 FC 奧倫堡受限於聯賽保級與客場作戰壓力，盃賽客場作戰戰意與陣容配置多以替補考察為主，防線抗壓能力有限。

市場定價與盤口推演：市場開出主勝 1.20（隱含勝率約 73.5%），讓球盤口深達主[-1.5/2]，高度認可莫斯科斯巴達的打穿能力。進球大細基準線設於 3.5 球（低區 1.58），反映市場預估主隊控制節奏下，全場總進球數更傾向受控於 3 球以內。

賽果與資產配置：莫斯科斯巴達主場勝率極高，主勝為確信度最高的基石資產；結合預估比分 2:0，次選配置讓球盤 主[-1.5] 具備良好的穿盤獲利空間。

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Market implied pricing vs Ordo probability

Spartak Moscow vs FC Orenburg Spartak Moscow vs FC Orenburg

Market reference pricing

主客和

半場主客和

入球大細

讓球主客和

波膽

半場波膽

Recent form

Team dossier

Spartak Moscow

FC Orenburg

Deep analysis

Asset weight allocation

Full-time HAD probabilities

Market implied pricing vs Ordo probability

Market recommendations

Actuarial narrative

深度分析