Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+9.4%
Secondary
Market
48.5%
Certus
45.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-3.5%
Result
Market
48.5%
Certus
45.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-3.5%
Settled
Austrian Bundesliga · 2026-08-10 01:00
· Certus
Austria Vienna vs LASK LinzAustria Vienna vs LASK Linz
Predicted1-2
Actual0-2
Core configuration [2.5] Large, second choice of home and guest and guest wins
Primary[2.5] Over✗SecondaryAway✓ResultAway✓Goals O/U[2.5] Over
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Certus probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Certus %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth analysis
【Imbalance between physical fitness and schedule】
Austria Wien encountered a devilish schedule at the beginning of the season. They suffered a 0-3 away defeat to Wolfsberga in the first round of the league. Then they traveled to Romania to play in the European Association League on August 6, 2026 (defeated Beitar Jerusalem 2-1). This league game is less than 72 hours away from the end of the European war, and the team is facing severe physical exhaustion and fatigue. In contrast, Nings (LASK) has had a complete preparation period of 9 days since its 3-0 victory over AK Graz in the first round of the league on July 31, and its physical advantage is overwhelming.
【Tactics and lineup status】
Ningsi showed strong offensive firepower and finishing ability in the first round. Austria Vienna's current defense is full of holes (conceded 3 goals in the first round). After experiencing a high-intensity foreign game in midweek, the coach will inevitably need to make passive rotations, which will further weaken the defensive understanding. Facing Ning Si's abundant physical impact, the home team's defense will be under great pressure.
[Market Pricing and Handicap Deduction]
The current market price for Kesheng is around 1.82 (implied probability is about 48.5%), which is in the gray area on the edge of high confidence. When the event list lacks Asian handicaps (tie handicaps, etc.) that can be used for defense, according to the system decision tree, it is the best choice to follow the trend and enter the goal number market. Taking into account Ning Si's forward status and the home team's tired defense, the probability of the total number of goals exceeding 2.5 goals is extremely high, and an away win can also be used as a reasonable secondary configuration. It is expected that Ningsi can take all three points in the away game by virtue of its physical and tactical advantages.
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